A market, in one example
Will it rain in London tomorrow?
The 30-coin “Yes” price is the crowd saying: 30% chance of rain. Tap a side to see what taking that bet actually means.
A market where people trade on what will happen — and the price becomes the crowd's live probability. It's the sharpest forecasting tool ever built, and the fastest way to understand it is to play one. On tyca that costs exactly nothing: free coins, real markets, never real money.
Will it rain in London tomorrow?
The 30-coin “Yes” price is the crowd saying: 30% chance of rain. Tap a side to see what taking that bet actually means.
Price = probability. Every prediction market — real-money or play-money — runs on this single equivalence.
A “Yes” share that costs 30 coins pays 100 if it happens. Traders only pay 30 for that if they think the chance is about 30% — so the price IS the crowd’s live estimate.
Think the crowd is too low? Buy, and the price rises. Too high? Sell, and it falls. Every trade is someone staking coins on their read — that pressure is what keeps prices honest.
When something real happens — a goal, a poll, a announcement — traders react immediately. Markets usually move before the headlines finish writing themselves.
Six parts, always the same. Once you can read them, every market on every platform makes sense.
Every market is one precise, checkable question with a deadline — “Will X happen by Y?” Vague questions make bad markets.
Each outcome has a live price in coins (= its %). All options together always sum to roughly 100.
How many coins have traded. High volume = many opinions in the price; thin markets are easier to doubt.
Trading stops at close (kickoff, poll close, deadline). Until then you can buy or sell freely.
The stated source that decides the outcome — on tyca it is fixed and public before the first trade.
When it resolves, winning shares pay 100 coins each. Losing shares pay nothing. That’s the whole game.
Markets have out-forecast pundits and polls for decades — for reasons that are mechanical, not magical. And when they're wrong, that's a skill too.
Pundits pay nothing for being wrong. Traders lose coins — so the confident-but-clueless get filtered out of the price over time.
Nobody knows everything, but everybody knows something. A market pays people to bring what they know into one price.
A poll is a snapshot; a market is a livestream. The price at any moment reflects everything the crowd has learned so far.
Markets misprice things too — thin volume, longshot bias, herding. Reading WHEN to trust the price is exactly the skill you build by playing.
Real-money prediction markets are booming — and real tuition there is expensive. tyca is the same live exchange: moving prices, positions, order books, real settlement. The only thing missing is the risk. Learn the instincts here, free, with 5,000 coins that never touch a bank.
Every term you'll meet on tyca (or anywhere else), in one line each.
Four small steps from curious to calibrated. Most people are hooked by step two.
Pick any market you have an opinion on and put 50 coins on it. You’ll understand prices better in one trade than ten articles.
Buy something, watch the price move, and sell before it resolves. Locking a profit (or cutting a loss) is the half of trading nobody explains.
Follow one category you actually know — your sport, your industry. Edges come from knowing something the crowd hasn’t priced yet.
A week in, look at what you got right and wrong. Being honestly calibrated — not always right — is what the leaderboard really measures.
5,000 free coins, live markets on everything, and a price that talks back. Class starts now.
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